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美国爱荷华州立大学姜正瑞教授学术报告




发布者:EMBA教育中心   时间:2018年10月09日 15:21


报告主题:Modeling Product Diffusion and Repeat Purchases: A Fractional  Calculus-Based Approach

报告人:姜正瑞  教授

邀请人:李文立  教授

时间及地点:2018年10月10日(周三) 上午9:00-10:30  管经新大楼B312

报告摘要:Classic  product diffusion models such as the Bass Model typically consider only initial  product purchases. For products that experience  frequent upgrades or have multiple versions, however, repeat product purchases  can constitute a significant proportion of sales. Despite the long  tradition of product diffusion research, there exists no good model option when  repeat purchases are inseparable from initial ones in sales data. The present  study proposes a new sales growth model to  fillthis gap. Our model, termed the  Generalized Diffusion Model with Repeat Purchases (GDMR), formulates the growth  rate of sales using a non-integer-order differential-integral equation rather  than an integer-order differential equation typically used in existing diffusion  models. The GDMR is parsimonious and easy to  implement. Empirical results show that the model can fit sales data with varying  proportions of repeat purchases, thus making it a suitable model for a wide  variety of products. We also demonstrate that the GDMR can effectively recover  adoption trends when only sales data is available, thus underscoring its  theoretical validity. Furthermore, the GDMR can be extended to incorporate  marketing mix variables, further enhancing its value in real-word  decision-making.

 



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