报告主题：Modeling Product Diffusion and Repeat Purchases: A Fractional Calculus-Based Approach
时间及地点：2018年10月10日（周三） 上午9:00-10:30 管经新大楼B312
报告摘要：Classic product diffusion models such as the Bass Model typically consider only initial product purchases. For products that experience frequent upgrades or have multiple versions, however, repeat product purchases can constitute a significant proportion of sales. Despite the long tradition of product diffusion research, there exists no good model option when repeat purchases are inseparable from initial ones in sales data. The present study proposes a new sales growth model to fillthis gap. Our model, termed the Generalized Diffusion Model with Repeat Purchases (GDMR), formulates the growth rate of sales using a non-integer-order differential-integral equation rather than an integer-order differential equation typically used in existing diffusion models. The GDMR is parsimonious and easy to implement. Empirical results show that the model can fit sales data with varying proportions of repeat purchases, thus making it a suitable model for a wide variety of products. We also demonstrate that the GDMR can effectively recover adoption trends when only sales data is available, thus underscoring its theoretical validity. Furthermore, the GDMR can be extended to incorporate marketing mix variables, further enhancing its value in real-word decision-making.